NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
CAR · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $4.3B · 17,000 employees
Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, A…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
121.74 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 121.74 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 95.21, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price121.74 USD
Fair value95.21
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution187.12-34.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avis Budget Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $121.74. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$121.74
Valuation
N/A trailing · 20.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
91.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 91.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Car rentals cost more than they are worth
Picture a business that hands you the keys to a hire car in dozens of countries yet is losing six pence on every pound of revenue. Avis Budget trades at one hundred and sixty dollars against a fair value nearer one hundred and fifteen, a margin of safety that has flipped negative. With revenue barely growing at four percent and a forward multiple of nineteen times, the shares sit well above analyst targets and offer no compelling case to own them.
The combination of slim growth, negative margins and an unknown competitive edge leaves little room for upside. Consensus among seven analysts sits at a hold with a median price target of one hundred and forty dollars, underscoring the lack of conviction. Ethical screens are cleared, yet that alone does not turn a structurally challenged rental operation into an attractive holding.
Cyclical demand for cars and trucks can swing sharply with fuel prices, travel patterns and economic mood, so today's earnings picture may already reflect peak conditions rather than a durable floor. Valuation risk remains the dominant concern here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Distribution$138.35-13.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-07-24Distribution$160.57-14.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-07-18Distribution$187.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-07-03Distribution$187.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$187.12Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
