Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Texas Instruments logoTexas Instruments TXN

Clears the common standard

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally.

The label
Distribution

read at $279.58

Texas Instruments holds its Distribution at $279.58.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseDistribution · caution
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price$279.58
Valuation47.87 trailing · 26.70 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta1.31

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $209.25 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 22.80% revenue growth.

Read at
$279.58
47.87 P/E · 26.70 fwd
Our fair value
$209.25
25% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$330.00
+18% to current
Target low $225.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $400.00
▲ current $279.58 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$419$278$137TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$400.00 +42%Analyst avg$330.00 +17%Our fair value$209.25 -26%Conservative$202.50 -28%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$279.58
you are here
Conservative
$202.50
-28%
Analyst avg
$330.00
+18%
Our fair value
$209.25
-25%
Analyst high
$400.00
+43%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth22.80%
Profit margin31.11%
Debt to equity78.04
Analyst consensusBuy · 31 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 40.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 5.5%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is 15.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Chipmaker Trades Rich Despite Ethical Red Flag

Every phone, car and factory sensor runs on chips that Texas Instruments designs with real skill. Yet the shares sit at 284 dollars against a fair value near 191, a 29.7 times forward multiple that leaves no margin of safety. The ethical screen already fails on the debt ratio, so we pass.

Strong 29 percent margins and 32 percent return on equity look impressive at first glance. This remains a cyclical industry though, where high earnings often peak just as multiples compress and trap buyers who chase yesterday's numbers. The consensus 302 dollar target ignores both the valuation gap and the leverage issue.

A wide moat does not remove the simple fact that the price and the balance sheet both sit on the wrong side of our tests. We stay away.

Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E26.7x
fairly priced for its growth rate
Trailing P/E47.9x
expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead
Revenue growth22.8%
strong top-line growth
Profit margin31.1%
highly profitable on every dollar of sales
Return on equity35.2%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity0.78
moderate, manageable leverage
Current ratio4.86
comfortably covers its short-term bills
Beta1.31
moves a little more than the market
Market cap$255.3B
Employees33,000

The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on TXN

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in TXN's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

TXN trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-22 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-22 Markup $284.02 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Markup $284.02 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-20 Markup $284.02 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-19 Markup $284.02 -0.4% Entry 6

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Markup $285.06 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-17 Markup $285.06 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-16 Markup $285.06 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-03 Markup $285.06 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $285.06 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · TXN
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-14 BAHAI AHMAD Officer 5,000 $1,545,636
2026-05-14 LIZARDI RAFAEL R Chief Financial Officer 47,734 $14,706,996
2026-05-14 BAHAI AHMAD Officer 5,000 $550,750
2026-05-14 LIZARDI RAFAEL R Chief Financial Officer 47,734 $8,344,381
2026-05-13 COX CARRIE SMITH Director 8,838 $2,708,029
2026-05-13 COX CARRIE SMITH Director 8,838 $947,492
2026-05-11 LEONARD SHANON J Officer 4,963 $1,465,186
2026-05-04 ILAN HAVIV Chief Executive Officer 20,000 $5,606,450
2026-05-04 ILAN HAVIV Chief Executive Officer 20,000 $1,585,200
2026-05-01 KNECHT JULIE C. Officer 9,956 $2,774,786

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming TXN
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
2026-04-14 Thomas Kean Jr Republican Purchase 1K–15K
2026-04-13 Ro Khanna Democrat Sale 15K–50K
15 May2026 Ro Khanna Democrat buy 1K–15K
14 Apr2026 Thomas Kean Jr Republican buy 1K–15K
1 May2026 Ro Khanna Democrat sell 15K–50K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $297.76 -5.3% · $947 -5.3%
2 months $213.64 +32.0% $1.42 $1,327 +32.7%
3 months $189.09 +49.1% $1.42 $1,499 +49.9%
6 months $179.58 +57.0% $2.84 $1,586 +58.6%
1 year $196.77 +43.3% $5.62 $1,462 +46.2%
2 years $186.75 +51.0% $11.00 $1,569 +56.9%
3 years $156.26 +80.5% $16.14 $1,908 +90.8%
5 years $163.68 +72.3% $25.48 $1,879 +87.9%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TXN does next, these words stay.

Texas Instruments · TXN · Distribution · $279.58
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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