Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.02, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price42.69 USD
Fair value54.74
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Markdown39.19+8.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-14Read Accumulation45.96-7.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Markdown47.69-10.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trip.com Group Limited holds its Accumulation at $42.69. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$42.69
Valuation
7.98 trailing · 9.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
-0.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
108.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 108.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
246.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 247.0% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.17%
Below 5%
Only 4.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Trip.com's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 109% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TCOM's ethical verdict changes
Today TCOM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on Ethical Consumer Boycotts List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $54.74 fair value, strong competitive moat, 5.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $54.74, with a range of $38.15 to $62.95, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Travel rebound masks a debt burden
Picture a packed flight out of Shanghai or a family hotel booking in Bangkok. Trip.com sits at the centre of that rebound, posting 17 percent revenue growth, 49 percent profit margins and a 20 percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at just 9.9 times and the moat looks solid, yet the stock fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason. Strong cyclical recovery numbers and a wide analyst consensus cannot override the screen when leverage breaches the line we set.
The sector can flip fast when travel slows and high debt leaves little room for error. A low multiple on peak earnings is often a warning, not a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TCOM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Markdown$39.78-0.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-23Markdown$40.01+2.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-16Markdown$38.88-2.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-02Markdown$39.90+1.8%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$39.19-14.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markdown$47.69+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$47.69+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$47.69Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
