Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.14, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price231.28 USD
Fair value198.29
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup213.75+8.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-21Read Distribution213.75+8.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution while volume still accumulates
2026-10-10Read Accumulation205.50+12.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown205.50+12.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Progressive Corporation holds its Markup at $231.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$231.28
Valuation
11.60 trailing · 14.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Progressive does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $198.29 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $198.29, with a range of $176.40 to $228.03, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Progressive Corporation - Missed Mark on Ethics
Imagine buying insurance from a company that could be construed as aiding and abetting unethical activities. That's the bind when it comes to Progressive Corporation. The company underwrites insurance for personal vehicles and properties, but it fails our ethical screen, due to specific business activities that don't align with our values. Why it stands out. Despite solid financials – a forward P/E of 13.5x, 7% revenue growth, and a healthy 13% profit margin – the ethical failure means we must give this a wide berth.
The market, however, has a different opinion, with analysts giving a consensus hold rating and a median target price of $228. Yet, when a company's business practices contradict our ethical standards, the numbers, no matter how appealing, cannot justify an investment. Risk sits in the company's moderate moat and the fact that it operates in a competitive insurance market, where reputation is paramount.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PGR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup · changed$213.75+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $231. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Accumulation$217.43+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Accumulation$217.43+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Accumulation$217.43+5.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Accumulation$205.50+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$205.50-4.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $231. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-09Markup$214.90+1.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$212.76+4.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
