NAS10026,990+1.35%S&P7,377+0.31%GOLD$4,075−0.94%BTC$75,835+0.12%VIX25.64−9.01%latest tape · as of 14:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Diversified
Hartford (The)
HIG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $35.5B · 19,200 employees
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
133.99 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 14:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price133.99 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price133.99 USD
Fair value145.83
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markup132.81+0.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 11 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution126.04+6.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-31Read Markdown136.10-1.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-01Read Markup140.14-4.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hartford (The) holds its Markup at $133.99. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$133.99
Valuation
8.87 trailing · 9.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hartford (The) does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today HIG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $145.83 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 3.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $145.83, with a range of $121.50 to $183.33, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer Looks Cheap Until Ethics Bite
Picture a storm hitting a small business or a family home. Hartford is the name that writes the cheque to keep things moving. The operation shows 6% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 23% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 10.1 times.
Yet the ethical screen fails outright on business activity grounds. That single breach overrides the moderate moat, the 13% margin of safety to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst targets sitting above the current price. We pass.
Insurance cycles can still swing hard on claims inflation and rate pressure, so even clean numbers carry real downside. The ethical block simply removes the name from consideration.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HIG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup$132.59-0.2%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147.
2026-10-26Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup · changed$132.81+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$132.81+5.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
