AEG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $13.5B · 15,304 employees
Aegon Ltd.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
9.06 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Aegon Ltd. holds its Markdown at $9.06. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 104 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 104 days
Price at the screen
$9.06
Valuation
11.92 trailing · 9.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: insurance
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $10.60 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pension giant fails on ethics alone
Picture a Dutch insurer handling pensions and savings for millions across the Americas and Europe. Aegon looks cheap at 9.7 times forward earnings with an 11 percent margin of safety to our fair value. Yet we pass without hesitation.
The business posts an 8 percent profit margin, 10 percent ROE and negative 14 percent revenue growth. A moderate moat and a buy-rated analyst target at 10 dollars do not move the needle when the ethical screen flags core business activity.
That screen exists for a reason and we apply it cleanly here. Valuation multiples on a slowing insurance book tell us little once the ethical bar is missed. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Netherlands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Accumulation$9.46+5.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-20Accumulation$9.01+4.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Accumulation$8.66+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-16Accumulation$8.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Accumulation$8.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$8.66Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.