HIG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $37.0B · 19,200 employees
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
136.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Hartford (The) holds its Markdown at $136.56. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 265 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 265 days
Price at the screen
$136.56
Valuation
9.44 trailing · 9.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $164.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer Looks Cheap Until Ethics Bite
Picture a storm hitting a small business or a family home. Hartford is the name that writes the cheque to keep things moving. The operation shows 6% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 23% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 10.1 times.
Yet the ethical screen fails outright on business activity grounds. That single breach overrides the moderate moat, the 13% margin of safety to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst targets sitting above the current price. We pass.
Insurance cycles can still swing hard on claims inflation and rate pressure, so even clean numbers carry real downside. The ethical block simply removes the name from consideration.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HIG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$136.10-2.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $150.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$140.14+6.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-18Accumulation$132.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-03Accumulation$132.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$132.14Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
