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The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Diversified
Hartford (The)
HIG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $36.0B · 19,200 employees
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
136.76 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 7 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price136.76 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read markup
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.49)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (7 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 136.76 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 163.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.49, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price136.76 USD
Fair value163.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markup132.81+3.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 11 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution126.04+8.5% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-31Read Markdown136.10+0.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-01Read Markup140.14-2.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hartford (The) holds its Markup at $136.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 334 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 334 days
Price at the screen
$136.76
Valuation
9.48 trailing · 9.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hartford (The) does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when HIG's ethical verdict changes
Today HIG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $163.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer Looks Cheap Until Ethics Bite
Picture a storm hitting a small business or a family home. Hartford is the name that writes the cheque to keep things moving. The operation shows 6% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 23% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 10.1 times.
Yet the ethical screen fails outright on business activity grounds. That single breach overrides the moderate moat, the 13% margin of safety to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst targets sitting above the current price. We pass.
Insurance cycles can still swing hard on claims inflation and rate pressure, so even clean numbers carry real downside. The ethical block simply removes the name from consideration.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HIG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$132.81+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup · changed$132.81+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$132.81+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$132.81+5.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
