Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price182.34 USD
Fair value270.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Distribution173.82+4.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup192.16-5.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
DaVita holds its Markup at $182.34. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$182.34
Valuation
15.45 trailing · 10.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
73.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 73.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.21%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.68%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 48% discount to our $270.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dialysis chain trips on debt and ethics
Every patient who needs regular dialysis depends on a network of clinics that must stay open and funded through thick and thin. DaVita runs one of the largest such networks in the United States, yet the business shows only 6 percent revenue growth and a 6 percent profit margin despite an eye catching 81 percent ROE.
We pass on the name. The forward multiple of 13.8 times earnings offers little cushion against the $218 median analyst target, and the ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio. Narrow moat plus a hold consensus from seven analysts leaves no margin for comfort.
High leverage remains the dominant risk, exposing the firm to interest rate moves and reimbursement pressure that could quickly erode those headline returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DVA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 26.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-27Markup$236.97+23.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 23.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-18Markup$192.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-03Markup$192.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$192.16Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
