PACS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B · 47,455 employees
PACS Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates skilled nursing facilities and assisted living facilities in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
44.76 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
PACS Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $44.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$44.76
Valuation
26.18 trailing · 16.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nursing homes offer thin margins despite high returns
Running care homes for the elderly is steady work but rarely exciting. PACS Group owns and operates skilled nursing and assisted living facilities across the United States, collecting steady fees from residents and government programmes. The business is simple, yet it must navigate tight staffing rules and reimbursement rates that leave little room for error.
The numbers show a company earning a 27% return on equity while growing revenue 11% a year, yet profit margins sit at just 4%. Trading at 18.9 times forward earnings with an unknown moat, the shares sit below our fair value but fail to clear the bar for a real opportunity. The ethical screen is passed, yet the setup offers nothing compelling enough to act.
Policy shifts on Medicare payments, rising labour costs and regional occupancy swings remain real threats that could compress those already slim margins further. A strong buy rating from analysts does not change the lack of durable advantage or margin of safety on offer here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PACS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$43.94-5.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 221%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $49. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 28.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 221%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-18Markup$36.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 221%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-03Markup$36.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$36.28Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
