Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.12, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price181.08 USD
Fair value208.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup175.59+3.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-10-24Read Markdown175.59+3.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-18Read Accumulation173.26+4.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown169.22+7.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ensign Group Inc holds its Markup at $181.08. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$181.08
Valuation
26.95 trailing · 20.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.65
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.48%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ensign's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 40% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ENSG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $208.98 fair value, weak competitive moat, 14.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $208.98, with a range of $189.00 to $241.20, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Care homes face rules that crush weak operators
Picture an ageing parent needing round the clock nursing care. The Ensign Group runs those facilities across the US, handling skilled nursing, rehab and senior living through its two segments. Revenue is growing 18 percent, yet the business posts only a 7 percent profit margin and a weak moat.
We pass. Forward earnings sit at 20.6 times, return on equity reaches 17 percent and the shares trade at an 18 percent discount to our fair value of 202.63 dollars. None of that overcomes the thin competitive edge or the fact that our opportunity rating is none, even though the ethical screen clears.
Regulation, reimbursement cuts and labour costs can swing results fast in this sector. A low margin leaves little room for error when those pressures hit. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ENSG trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$181.52+3.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-27Markup$175.59+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$175.59+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$175.59+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown · changed$175.59+1.3%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$169.22-3.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-10-02Accumulation$174.47-4.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-27Distribution$171.28+14.7%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
