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The Screen · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Fresenius Medical Care AG ADR
FMS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.1B · 108,165 employees
Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
23.40 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 10:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price23.40 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 27.72, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price23.40 USD
Fair value29.40
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup22.47+4.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-25Read Distribution22.68+3.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 7 days
2026-10-18Read Markup21.08+11.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-11Read Distribution20.69+13.1% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Fresenius Medical Care AGADR holds its Markup at $23.40. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$23.40
Valuation
13.53 trailing · 9.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.35%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Fresenius Medical Care's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 35% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FMS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $29.40 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 1.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $29.40, with a range of $29.40 to $46.80, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dialysis patients keep coming but revenue slips
Think of a clinic that fills its chairs every day yet still posts lower sales. Fresenius Medical Care runs dialysis centres across Germany, the US and beyond, giving patients the regular treatment they cannot skip.
We pass. The shares sit at 6.6 times forward earnings and show a 32 percent margin of safety to our fair value, yet revenue has dropped 6 percent, margins are only 5 percent and return on equity is 8 percent. A narrow moat and a consensus hold rating with a $26 target give no clear reason to step in.
Reimbursement pressure and competition in its biggest markets can keep squeezing results, and the low multiple may simply flag those ongoing headwinds rather than a mispriced opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Germany and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FMS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Germany). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$22.47-0.9%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$21.08+1.9%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-10-02Markdown$22.20-6.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$23.63-4.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-30Markup$24.75+7.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markup$23.02+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markup$23.02+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$23.02Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
