Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.90, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price43.85 USD
Fair value53.18
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown53.35-17.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since August
2026-09-18Read Accumulation52.41-16.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-19Read Markdown52.70-16.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup55.89-21.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
YPF ADR holds its Markdown at $43.85. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$43.85
Valuation
25.92 trailing · 8.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.89%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.43%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
YPF's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when YPF's ethical verdict changes
Today YPF does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 18% discount to our $53.18 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 72.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $53.18, with a range of $45.00 to $61.16, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Argentina Oil Play Hides a Value Trap
Every time crude prices jump, money flows into Argentine energy names that look cheap on a screen. YPF shows revenue up 43 percent yet posts a negative 2 percent profit margin and minus 3 percent return on equity, so the 8.6 times forward multiple simply marks peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine bargain.
We pass despite an ethical screen clearance. The narrow moat and Argentina exposure leave no durable advantage, and the 7 percent gap to fair value offers no real protection once the cycle rolls over.
Currency swings, government meddling and oil price reversals can erase the apparent discount overnight. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Argentina and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
YPF trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Argentina). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$49.24-5.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-10-21Markdown$52.25+0.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-10-14Markdown$51.97-2.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$53.35+1.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-08-19Markdown · changed$52.70-5.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-18Markup$55.89+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-03Markup$55.89+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$55.89Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
