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The Screen · Industrials · Trucking
XPO Inc
XPO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $21.6B · 37,000 employees
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
184.80 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-03
Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
XPO Inc holds its Markdown at $184.80. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$184.80
Valuation
54.67 trailing · 28.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucking moves goods but prices can stall
Picture a lorry loaded with freight rolling across borders. The cargo reaches its destination yet the bill for the shares far exceeds the value those wheels generate. XPO trades at 215 dollars against a fair value of 178, a 35.6 times forward earnings multiple on just 7 percent revenue growth and 4 percent margins.
We pass because the narrow moat and modest returns on equity of 20 percent do not justify paying above fair value. Analysts may cluster around a 236 dollar target yet the numbers show an expensive business in a competitive haulage market where pricing power stays limited.
Trucking remains cyclical so any slowdown in volumes would quickly pressure those thin margins and leave the current valuation exposed. Ethical checks clear yet the price leaves no margin of safety.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XPO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$184.80-12.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-08-18Accumulation$210.99-7.6%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-18Accumulation$228.33+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03Accumulation$228.33+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$228.33Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.