UMB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides banking services and asset servicing in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
133.77 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 04:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price133.77 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.09, read 2026-11-08
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price133.77 USD
Fair value185.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation131.10+2.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-15Read Markdown139.37-4.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-15Read Accumulation145.13-7.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown135.37-1.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UMB Financial Corp holds its Accumulation at $133.77. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 61 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 61 days
Price at the screen
$133.77
Valuation
10.29 trailing · 9.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
UMB Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when UMBF's ethical verdict changes
Today UMBF does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 28% discount to our $185.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 13.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $185.00, with a range of $159.18 to $265.30, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Bank Hits Our Ethical Wall
Think of a Midwest bank branch clearing loans for farmers and small factories. UMB Financial shows revenue up 49 percent, a forward multiple of 10.6 times and a profit margin of 32 percent, yet we pass because it fails our ethical screen on regional banks.
The numbers look steady with ROE at 12 percent and a 16 percent gap to our fair value, but the weak moat and excluded industry make any investment irrelevant to us. Consensus targets sit near 161 dollars and offer no reason to bend the rule.
Banking carries interest rate swings and credit cycles that can trap even cheap earnings, and the ethical fail simply removes the name from consideration. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UMBF trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$134.47+2.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-27Accumulation$131.10+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$131.10+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$131.10-0.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
