UMB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides banking services and asset servicing in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
139.37 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 139.37 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 189.61, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price139.37 USD
Fair value189.61
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown139.37+0.0% to today
2026-08-15Read Accumulation145.13-4.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown135.37+3.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UMB Financial Corp holds its Markdown at $139.37. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$139.37
Valuation
11.59 trailing · 9.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Bank Hits Our Ethical Wall
Think of a Midwest bank branch clearing loans for farmers and small factories. UMB Financial shows revenue up 49 percent, a forward multiple of 10.6 times and a profit margin of 32 percent, yet we pass because it fails our ethical screen on regional banks.
The numbers look steady with ROE at 12 percent and a 16 percent gap to our fair value, but the weak moat and excluded industry make any investment irrelevant to us. Consensus targets sit near 161 dollars and offer no reason to bend the rule.
Banking carries interest rate swings and credit cycles that can trap even cheap earnings, and the ethical fail simply removes the name from consideration. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UMBF trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$139.37-4.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markdown$135.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $147.
2026-07-03Markdown$135.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$135.37Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
