Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking services for individuals and businesses in Puerto Rico, the United States, the British Virgin Islands, the Caribbean, and…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
163.96 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Popular Inc holds its Markdown at $163.96. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$163.96
Valuation
11.09 trailing · 9.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Local banking that hits an ethical wall
Families in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean turn to Popular for mortgages, deposits and small business loans that bigger names often overlook. The numbers show steady 10% revenue growth, a 30% profit margin and 15% ROE at a forward multiple of 10.3x. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none.
We pass outright because the ethical screen excludes regional banks on principle. No valuation discount or analyst target near 189 changes that line. The weak moat simply reinforces the decision.
Risk sits in the usual cyclical pressures of lending, currency moves across Latin America and the fact that low multiples on banks often signal peak-cycle earnings rather than bargains. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BPOP trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markdown · changed$176.14+2.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-07-23Accumulation$171.75+6.7%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-07-18Accumulation$160.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-07-03Accumulation$160.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$160.95Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
