Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
25.60 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 25.60 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 32.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.60 USD
Fair value32.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown25.77-0.7% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Markup26.67-4.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation25.14+1.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Old National Bancorp holds its Markdown at $25.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 137 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 137 days
Price at the screen
$25.60
Valuation
11.33 trailing · 8.86 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday Banking Trips the Ethical Line
Walk into any Midwest branch and the deposit slips and mortgage forms look routine, yet the cash still moves through a sector our screen rules out. Revenue growth sits at 46 percent with a forward multiple of 9.3 times and 30 percent margins, but the ethical verdict lands first.
We pass because the screen flags banking outright on prohibited grounds and no valuation gap or analyst targets override that rule. The 20 percent margin to fair value and 10 percent return on equity never reach the table.
This is exactly what the screen exists to catch before any other numbers are weighed. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ONB trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$25.77-3.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$26.67+6.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Accumulation$25.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Accumulation$25.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$25.14Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.