Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price162.66 USD
Fair value176.10
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Accumulation164.39-1.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown148.00+9.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. holds its Markdown at $162.66. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$162.66
Valuation
15.36 trailing · 13.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Texas banking still touches everyday lives
Walk into any Frost branch in Austin or San Antonio and you see the same story. Local firms need loans, families need accounts, and the money moves through a regional bank that knows its patch. Cullen/Frost shows steady 8% revenue growth, a 30% profit margin and 15% ROE, yet our numbers put the shares slightly above fair value with almost no margin of safety.
We pass for one clear reason. The ethical screen flags any bank holding company outright, and that rule exists to keep us out of the sector regardless of the numbers. Analyst consensus sits at hold with a median target near the current price, so there is no mispricing to debate.
Regional banks still carry the usual cycle risks around credit losses and rate moves, but the ethical block is what matters here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CFR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-07-24Markdown$161.65+9.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-07-18Markdown$148.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-07-03Markdown$148.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$148.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
