Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.54, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price75.45 USD
Fair value68.55
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation69.10+9.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 10 weeks
2026-08-03Read Markup64.00+17.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Distribution61.60+22.5% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Suncor Energy Inc holds its Markup at $75.45. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 372 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 372 days
Price at the screen
$75.45
Valuation
13.92 trailing · 10.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Suncor Energy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 16%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SU's ethical verdict changes
Today SU passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $68.55 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 45.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.1% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $68.55, with a range of $61.68 to $78.84, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Sands Look Cheap Until Cycle Turns
Oil prices swing like a pendulum and Suncor sits right in the path. At 11.2 times forward earnings the shares appear inexpensive next to 18 percent revenue growth and a 14 percent return on equity. Yet the narrow moat and negative margin of safety at current prices tell a different story.
We pass because this is classic cyclical value trap territory. Peak cycle earnings often produce low multiples that look attractive until demand falls and profits follow. The 12 percent profit margin and narrow competitive edge offer little protection when the downturn arrives.
Currency swings, oil volatility and Canadian regulatory pressure add further uncertainty. Analyst targets sit higher but ignore how quickly those numbers reset when the cycle moves. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SU trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$79.42+1.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-10-25Accumulation$78.39+3.6%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-10-18Accumulation$75.64+9.5%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-10-02Markup$69.10+5.7%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-09-04Markup$65.36+2.1%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-08-04Markup$64.00+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$64.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
