NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Capital Markets
Stifel Financial Corp
SF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.0B · 8,900 employees
Stifel Financial Corp.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
79.69 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Stifel Financial Corp holds its Markdown at $79.69. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 58 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 58 days
Price at the screen
$79.69
Valuation
14.23 trailing · 10.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Wealth Manager Looks Cheap but Ethics Block Entry
Picture a broker handling client portfolios and deals across the US with steady 14% revenue growth and 16% profit margins. Stifel trades at 10.9 times forward earnings with a 15% ROE and a narrow moat, numbers that would normally draw attention. We pass anyway.
The ethical screen rules it out because capital markets sit on the excluded list. No valuation appeal or analyst target near 85 dollars changes that stance. The screen exists to keep us clear of these sectors regardless of the 24% gap to fair value.
Cyclical swings in deal flow and market sentiment still create real earnings risk even when multiples look low. Concentration in US wealth management adds another layer of exposure when rates or volumes shift. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$79.69-4.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$83.39+14.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Markdown$72.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-03Markdown$72.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$72.66Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
