Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price41.72 USD
Fair value80.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation41.72+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-02Read Markdown41.88-0.4% to today ✓
2026-08-02Read Distribution33.93+23.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup59.77-30.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
IREN Ltd holds its Accumulation at $41.72. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$41.72
Valuation
N/A trailing · -10.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
4.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
IREN does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 91.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +92% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bitcoin Data Centre Play Trips Ethical Line
Every time a rig hums in a Canadian shed and turns electricity into Bitcoin, IREN sits in the middle of that flow. The business owns the hardware, the power links and the sites, yet the capital markets tag on Bitcoin mining triggers our ethical screen without debate.
We pass for the clearest reason: excluded industry status on capital markets. The figures give no reason to argue the point either. Revenue sits flat, the forward earnings multiple is deeply negative, return on equity is a thin 8 percent and the moat stays narrow. Fifteen analysts may still lean buy with an $80 median target, but none of that moves the ethical call.
The stock trades at half the stated fair value on paper, yet that gap means little once the screen rules the name out. Zero growth and negative earnings leave little margin for the usual cyclical excuses either. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IREN trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 394%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$41.88+23.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 23.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 394%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 43.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 394%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Markup$59.77+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 394%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Markup$59.77+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$59.77Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
