Screened 2026-08-21 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Galaxy Digital Inc holds its Accumulation at $23.64. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 64 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 64 days
Price at the screen
$23.64
Valuation
N/A trailing · -74.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
3.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 62.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Crypto desks hit ethical walls before any payoff
Every time a bitcoin trade clears or a data centre spins up for digital assets the fees land at a capital markets firm like this one. Galaxy fails the ethical screen outright on its core industry so we pass regardless of any other detail.
Numbers tell the same story with revenue down 21 percent profit margin at zero and return on equity negative 7 percent while the forward multiple sits at nearly 300 times. The narrow moat offers little protection and our fair value sits below the current price leaving no opportunity.
Analysts still push a 40 dollar target yet the cyclical swings in digital assets plus thin margins make any recovery fragile at best. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 37.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Markdown$33.36+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markdown$33.36+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$33.36Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.