Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.48, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.14 USD
Fair value27.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Distribution14.56+4.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 27% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markup19.97-24.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 20% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-18Read Markdown16.68-9.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Distribution16.02-5.5% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
XP Inc. holds its Distribution at $15.14. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$15.14
Valuation
7.62 trailing · 5.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
XP does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 45% discount to our $27.00 fair value, 10.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.9% discount to the base estimate.
Picture a young professional in Sao Paulo opening an app to buy shares or a fund for the first time. XP built the platform that makes those trades simple and cheap across Brazil. Revenue is growing at 10 percent, margins sit near 29 percent and return on equity reaches 23 percent, all at a forward multiple of just 7.1 times. On paper the numbers look attractive next to a fair value well above the current price.
We pass regardless. The business sits squarely inside financial services, which triggers an automatic fail on our ethical screen. No amount of margin of safety or analyst buy ratings changes that rule. We apply the screen precisely so we do not have to debate individual cases after the fact.
The low multiple also carries the usual warning for financial platforms. Revenue can slow quickly when Brazilian rates or markets turn, and currency swings add another layer of volatility that is hard to forecast. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XP trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 51.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-28Markup$30.26+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markup$30.26-6.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-14Markup$32.22+59.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 59.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup$20.27+1.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-17Markup · changed$19.97+19.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-18Markdown · changed$16.68+4.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.02Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.