An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · XP Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $17.20
XP Inc. holds its Distribution at $17.20.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price
$17.20
Valuation
8.87 trailing · 7.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.12
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$17.20
8.87 P/E · 7.40 fwd
Our fair value
$26.78
56% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$23.31
+36% to current
Target low $19.45Analyst target rangeTarget high $26.78
▲ current $17.20 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$17.20
you are here
Conservative
$26.16
+52%
Analyst avg
$23.31
+36%
Our fair value
$26.78
+56%
Analyst high
$26.78
+56%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
9.70%
Profit margin
28.85%
Debt to equity
677.35
Analyst consensus
Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited keyword in sector/industry: financial servicesFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Picture a young professional in Sao Paulo opening an app to buy shares or a fund for the first time. XP built the platform that makes those trades simple and cheap across Brazil. Revenue is growing at 10 percent, margins sit near 29 percent and return on equity reaches 23 percent, all at a forward multiple of just 7.1 times. On paper the numbers look attractive next to a fair value well above the current price.
We pass regardless. The business sits squarely inside financial services, which triggers an automatic fail on our ethical screen. No amount of margin of safety or analyst buy ratings changes that rule. We apply the screen precisely so we do not have to debate individual cases after the fact.
The low multiple also carries the usual warning for financial platforms. Revenue can slow quickly when Brazilian rates or markets turn, and currency swings add another layer of volatility that is hard to forecast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in XP's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
XP trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.02Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming XP
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
8 May2026
Rick Allen
Republican
buy
1K–15K
6 May2026
John Fetterman
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
27 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$18.67
-20.0%
·
$800
-20.0%
2 months
$19.99
-25.3%
·
$747
-25.3%
3 months
$18.06
-17.3%
·
$827
-17.3%
6 months
$17.75
-15.9%
·
$842
-15.9%
1 year
$19.76
-24.4%
$0.18
$765
-23.5%
2 years
$17.56
-14.9%
$0.83
$898
-10.2%
3 years
$18.32
-18.4%
$2.14
$932
-6.8%
5 years
$39.38
-62.1%
$2.14
$434
-56.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever XP does next, these words stay.
XP Inc. · XP · Distribution · $17.20
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically