Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.87, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price47.38 USD
Fair value59.41
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup48.56-2.4% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 7% slide in 9 weeks
2026-09-02Read Markdown52.33-9.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-03Read Markup57.23-17.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation61.66-23.2% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc holds its Markup at $47.38. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$47.38
Valuation
12.30 trailing · 10.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Jefferies Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today JEF does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 18% discount to our $59.41 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $59.41, with a range of $50.86 to $84.77, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Capital markets broker hits the ethical wall
Picture a dealmaker in New York sealing an IPO while fees roll in from every time zone. Jefferies shows revenue growth of 35 percent, a 23 percent profit margin and trades at 12.1 times forward earnings with a narrow moat. The numbers are respectable and analysts see further upside, yet the stock fails our ethical screen on capital markets exposure.
That single filter rules it out. We do not need to weigh the 19 percent margin of safety to fair value or the buy-rated consensus when the business sits in an excluded industry. The screen exists for exactly these cases.
Capital markets revenue remains lumpy and tied to deal flow that can dry up fast in any downturn. Even a low multiple offers little protection if earnings peak and then fall. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JEF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$48.56+8.4%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Markdown$44.80+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markdown$44.80+0.9%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$44.38-4.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$46.52-2.8%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-24Markdown$47.85-11.3%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-21Markdown$53.93+3.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$52.33-8.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$57.23-7.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$61.66+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
