Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-10-15
Options put/call open interest 0.13, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price103.31 USD
Fair value89.18
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup97.95+5.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-18Read Distribution97.95+5.5% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markup99.43+3.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-11Read Markdown103.23+0.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
RPM International Inc holds its Markup at $103.31. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$103.31
Valuation
19.10 trailing · 15.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.19%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
RPM International's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today RPM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $89.18 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 4.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $89.18, with a range of $89.18 to $102.55, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chemicals for every boom meet the next bust
Think of a paint supplier riding every construction cycle. When builders are busy the volumes surge, yet the next slowdown wipes the gains away just as fast. RPM sits in that exact spot, with revenue up 9 percent but our fair value sitting 16 percent below the current price.
We pass. The forward multiple of 17.9 times does not look cheap once you allow for peak-cycle earnings, and the narrow moat gives little protection when volumes turn. Strong analyst targets at 127 dollars cannot override the fact that the business is priced for perfection in an industry built on swings.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. A 23 percent ROE and 9 percent margins look solid today, yet both compress quickly when housing and industrial spending cool. Ethical screen cleared, yet the valuation leaves no margin for the downturns that always arrive.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RPM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup$102.44+4.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$97.95+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$99.43+1.1%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-10-02Markdown$98.37-4.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-11Markdown · changed$103.23-7.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-08-11Markup$111.77+4.4%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-07-18Markup$107.05+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $129.
2026-07-03Markup$107.05+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$107.05Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
