Brenntag SE distributes chemicals and ingredients in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Canada, Italy, Poland, France, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price13.67 USD
Fair value11.67
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Accumulation14.84-7.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution12.94+5.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Brenntag SE holds its Markdown at $13.67. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 89 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 89 days
Price at the screen
$13.67
Valuation
23.17 trailing · 11.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.01%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.75%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $11.67 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 10.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.6% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chemicals distributor faces slowing demand cycle
Picture a warehouse full of solvents and additives waiting for factories that have hit the brakes. Brenntag moves those ingredients across borders, yet revenue is already down ten percent and margins sit at just two percent. The forward multiple of 11.9 times looks cheap until you remember earnings in this business peak when volumes are strong and collapse when they are not.
We pass for now. Return on equity of five percent and a weak moat show a business that struggles to earn its cost of capital through the cycle. The negative margin of safety against our fair value only widens the gap between quoted price and sustainable cash generation.
A single analyst target near the current level offers little comfort when volumes remain tied to industrial output. Low multiples in cyclical distribution often mark the start of mean reversion rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Germany and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BNTGY trades on PNK (the company is based in Germany). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-23Distribution$13.59+5.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Distribution$12.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Distribution$12.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$12.94Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
