Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.71, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.43 USD
Fair value19.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation13.79+26.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 20% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-13Read Markup11.45+52.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-13Read Accumulation11.30+54.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 13% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown13.00+34.1% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sasol Limited holds its Accumulation at $17.43. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-26
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$17.43
Valuation
15.70 trailing · 6.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.22%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.17%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sasol's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SSL's ethical verdict changes
Today SSL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap chemicals stock masks a cyclical trap
Picture a South African plant where oil prices and local power cuts decide whether the month ends in profit or barely covers wages. Sasol sits in that spot, selling fuels and chemicals into a market that has stopped growing for the business. Revenue is flat, margins sit at one percent and return on equity is just two percent, so the low forward multiple of 6.8 times reflects thin results rather than hidden strength.
We pass because the ethical screen is clear yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The company shows no revenue momentum and limited ability to compound capital, which leaves the modest six percent gap to our fair value of twelve dollars looking more like noise than an edge.
Cyclical businesses often print low multiples right when earnings peak, and Sasol fits that pattern with its energy exposure and zero growth. Currency swings and commodity moves can wipe out the thin margin quickly, turning what looks like value into a trap for patient capital. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to South Africa and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SSL trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$15.63+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$15.63+13.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup$13.79+20.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-13Markup · changed$11.45+1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markdown$13.00+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 173%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markdown$13.00+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$13.00Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
