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The Screen · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
AXTA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.0B · 12,300 employees
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
36.45 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 16:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price36.45 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.59, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.45 USD
Fair value29.80
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup37.45-2.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-22Read Accumulation33.75+8.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-24Read Markdown31.86+14.4% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup33.11+10.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. holds its Markup at $36.45. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$36.45
Valuation
24.01 trailing · 14.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.99%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Axalta Coating Systems's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when AXTA's ethical verdict changes
Today AXTA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $29.80 fair value estimate, 1.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $29.80, with a range of $29.70 to $34.27, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coatings maker faces the classic cycle trap
Every time a factory line or fleet vehicle needs a fresh coat, the order book rises and falls with the broader economy. Axalta sits in that flow, yet revenue is already shrinking and the shares trade above our fair value estimate. The 11.5 times forward earnings looks tempting until you remember this is a cyclical business where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains.
We pass. Growth has turned negative, margins sit at just 7 percent, and the modest 16 percent return on equity offers little cushion when volumes drop. The market may be calling the stock a buy, but the cyclical value trap is exactly why we stay clear even though the ethical screen is clear.
Currency swings, raw-material spikes and sudden auto or construction slowdowns remain live risks that a low multiple does not protect against. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXTA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$37.45+8.1%Entry 18
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-29Accumulation$34.64+2.6%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$33.75+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$33.73+3.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
