NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,341−0.82%BTC$85,482−0.80%VIX14.31−3.77%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
AXTA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.8B · 12,300 employees
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
31.86 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 31.86 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 31.63, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price31.86 USD
Fair value31.63
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup33.11-3.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. holds its Markdown at $31.86. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$31.86
Valuation
19.55 trailing · 11.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.99%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coatings maker faces the classic cycle trap
Every time a factory line or fleet vehicle needs a fresh coat, the order book rises and falls with the broader economy. Axalta sits in that flow, yet revenue is already shrinking and the shares trade above our fair value estimate. The 11.5 times forward earnings looks tempting until you remember this is a cyclical business where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains.
We pass. Growth has turned negative, margins sit at just 7 percent, and the modest 16 percent return on equity offers little cushion when volumes drop. The market may be calling the stock a buy, but the cyclical value trap is exactly why we stay clear even though the ethical screen is clear.
Currency swings, raw-material spikes and sudden auto or construction slowdowns remain live risks that a low multiple does not protect against. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXTA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$37.54+16.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-22Markup$32.34-2.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markup$33.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markup$33.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$33.11Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
