Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
NetEase Inc ADR holds its Distribution at $115.61. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$115.61
Valuation
15.41 trailing · 10.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.51%
Below 5%
Only 3.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 71.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +39% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Games That Click in China Still Face Limits
Picture a teenager in Shanghai queuing for the latest NetEase title while the company pulls in thirty percent profit margins and twenty two percent returns on equity. Those are solid numbers on a forward multiple of twelve point four times, and the shares sit well below our fair value with a forty nine percent margin of safety. Yet the business still only grows revenue at six percent a year with a narrow moat.
We pass. Opportunity rating sits at none because the combination of modest growth and limited competitive protection does not clear our bar, even though the ethical screen is clear. Analyst targets cluster around one hundred fifty eight dollars, but we see no reason to override the rating when the underlying trajectory remains steady rather than compelling.
China regulatory risk and the hit driven nature of gaming keep the real exposure higher than the headline metrics suggest. A narrow moat leaves little room if player tastes shift or if fresh approvals slow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NTES trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162.
2026-08-13Markup$130.36+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$130.36+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$130.36+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-09Markup$130.36+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Markup$130.36+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-07Markup$130.36+9.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Markup$119.55+0.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$119.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (31 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $162.
2026-07-03Markup$119.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
