Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Roblox Corp holds its Markup at $45.50. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$45.50
Valuation
N/A trailing · -37.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
19.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.12%
Below 5%
Only 4.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 34 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Kids build worlds while Roblox burns cash
Teenagers log on to create and trade inside virtual worlds that feel more real than the school run. Roblox has built a platform millions treat as their third place, yet the numbers still show heavy losses. Revenue is rising 39 percent, but margins sit at minus 21 percent and return on equity is deeply negative.
We pass despite the 20 percent gap to fair value and a clean ethical screen. Forward earnings sit at a negative 40 times multiple, the moat remains narrow, and growth alone does not turn a loss-making model into a durable business. Analyst targets cluster at the same 62 dollars the model already prices, offering no extra edge.
The real risk is simple. Strong user numbers can mask how quickly spending on servers and creators eats any profit. One slowdown in engagement would widen losses fast and leave the narrow competitive edge exposed. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RBLX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $65.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $65.
2026-07-18Markup$43.31+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $65.
2026-07-03Markup$43.31+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$43.31Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
