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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
FirstCash Holdings Inc
FCFS · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $8.3B
FirstCash Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates retail pawn stores in the United States, Mexico, rest of Latin America, and the United Kingdom.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
193.34 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price193.34 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.20, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price193.34 USD
Fair value220.61
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution172.75+11.9% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 21% slide in 12 days
2026-10-17Read Markdown218.83-11.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-16Read Accumulation218.83-11.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown212.82-9.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
FirstCash Holdings Inc holds its Distribution at $193.34. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$193.34
Valuation
21.05 trailing · 15.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Credit Services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Credit Services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
FirstCash does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: Credit Services, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when FCFS's ethical verdict changes
Today FCFS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $220.61 fair value, weak competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $220.61, with a range of $211.50 to $253.70, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pawn shops cash in but ethics close the door
Every time a worker in Texas needs quick cash for the rent, the pawn counter offers a loan against a watch or a tool. FirstCash runs that network across the US, Mexico and beyond, yet we pass outright. The business sits in an excluded industry under our ethical screen, so the 26% revenue growth, 9% profit margin and 16% ROE never reach the table.
Forward earnings sit at 17.1 times with a weak moat and almost no margin of safety at the current price. Analyst targets sit higher, yet the opportunity rating stays at none and the ethical failure overrides any valuation math.
The real risk is that credit services like this can look stable until regulation or consumer pushback tightens the spreads. We apply the screen exactly for this reason. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FCFS trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$193.34+11.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-10-22Markdown$214.92+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$214.92+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$214.92-1.8%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$218.83+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$218.83+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown · changed$218.83+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$213.70+0.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
