NNI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.5B · 5,744 employees
Nelnet, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
125.78 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Nelnet, Inc. holds its Markdown at $125.78. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$125.78
Valuation
15.05 trailing · 13.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Student loan servicer trips our ethics screen
Picture a family in Nebraska sorting out student debt payments each month. Nelnet handles that flow through loan servicing and education payments, yet the business lands straight on our prohibited list because it sits inside financial services. We pass before weighing anything else.
The shares trade at 14 times forward earnings against a fair value 18 percent lower than the current price. Revenue is already shrinking 7 percent and return on equity sits at just 11 percent, so the modest profit margin offers little cushion. One analyst calls it a hold with a target barely above where it sits today.
Any recovery in volumes would still leave the ethical block in place, and the low return on equity hints that growth may stay muted even if rates ease. The combination leaves nothing to pursue. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NNI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$127.71-5.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $135.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-18Distribution$130.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-03Distribution$130.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$130.30Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
