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The Screen · Industrials · Railroads
Canadian National Railway Co
CNI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $73.3B · 23,541 employees
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
117.51 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 117.51 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 133.28, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price117.51 USD
Fair value133.28
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markdown126.40-7.0% to today ✓
2026-07-03Read Accumulation118.98-1.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Canadian National Railway Co holds its Markdown at $117.51. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$117.51
Valuation
21.48 trailing · 18.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable rails still priced for steady growth
Think of Canadian National as the freight train that always arrives on schedule. It moves goods across vast distances with few hiccups, delivering a 27 percent profit margin and 22 percent return on equity even as revenue sits flat. The narrow moat supports those returns, and the business clears the ethical screen without issue.
Yet the numbers leave little room for error. Shares trade at 20.5 times forward earnings and sit 2 percent above our fair value, while revenue shows no growth. Thirteen analysts see a modest upside to 127 dollars, but that target barely covers the current price and offers no margin of safety.
The main risk is that any slowdown in North American trade or rising fuel costs could squeeze volumes without the buffer of cheaper entry. Zero top-line momentum makes the current multiple look full rather than attractive. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CNI trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$126.40-2.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-07-24Accumulation$129.03+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$129.03+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$129.03+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$129.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$129.03+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Accumulation$129.03+8.4%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$118.98+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Accumulation$118.98+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$118.98+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.