Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1.76 USD
Fair value1.91
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation1.73+1.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-21Read Markdown1.760.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Accumulation1.84-4.3% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alstom SA holds its Accumulation at $1.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$1.76
Valuation
24.71 trailing · 7.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
18.63%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 18.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alstom's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ALSMY's ethical verdict changes
Today ALSMY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS France, Palestinian BDS National Committee
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on BDS France / Palestinian BDS National Committee — category: Désinvestissement. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $1.91 fair value, 4.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trains Run But Debt Sinks This Rail Play
Every time a commuter boards a metro in Paris or a new line opens in Asia, Alstom supplies the rolling stock and signalling. The business looks busy yet the figures tell a different story. We are staying away.
Forward earnings trade at 7.3 times but revenue rises only 4 percent, profit margins sit at 2 percent and return on equity is a thin 3 percent. One analyst calls it a hold with a target near 2 dollars against the current price of 1.63 dollars. The ethical screen already fails on the debt ratio and that alone rules it out.
Heavy borrowing leaves little room for error in an industry where contracts slip and currencies swing. Project delays across Europe, the Americas and Africa would quickly squeeze cash flow further. This is exactly what the screen is for.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to France and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALSMY trades on PNK (the company is based in France). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-12Markdown$1.71+4.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-02Markdown$1.63-7.4%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. Since the last review it its composite score eased; entered the Titan Ethical 500; its quality tier rose to Silver.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$1.76-7.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-08-21Accumulation$1.90+9.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-21Accumulation$1.74-5.4%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-18Accumulation$1.84+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-17Accumulation$1.84+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-03Accumulation$1.84+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$1.84Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
