ENTRY
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$128.88
23.31 P/E · 20.26 fwd
Our fair value
$128.32
0% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$138.80
+8% to current
Target low $112.71Analyst target rangeTarget high $150.61
▲ current $128.88 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
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Business activity
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
-
Debt load
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
-
Interest-bearing cash
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
-
Receivables
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
-
Revenue purity
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Reliable rails still priced for steady growth
Think of Canadian National as the freight train that always arrives on schedule. It moves goods across vast distances with few hiccups, delivering a 27 percent profit margin and 22 percent return on equity even as revenue sits flat. The narrow moat supports those returns, and the business clears the ethical screen without issue.
Yet the numbers leave little room for error. Shares trade at 20.5 times forward earnings and sit 2 percent above our fair value, while revenue shows no growth. Thirteen analysts see a modest upside to 127 dollars, but that target barely covers the current price and offers no margin of safety.
The main risk is that any slowdown in North American trade or rising fuel costs could squeeze volumes without the buffer of cheaper entry. Zero top-line momentum makes the current multiple look full rather than attractive. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24
Accumulation $129.03
+0.0% Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23
Accumulation $129.03
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22
Accumulation $129.03
+0.0% Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21
Accumulation $129.03
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20
Accumulation $129.03
+0.0% Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19
Accumulation $129.03
+8.4% Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18
Accumulation $118.98
+0.0% Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17
Accumulation $118.98
+0.0% Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03
Accumulation $118.98
+0.0% Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Accumulation $118.98
Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.