An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $92.36
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited holds its Markup at $92.36.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 287 days
Price
$92.36
Valuation
29.04 trailing · 21.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$92.36
29.04 P/E · 21.89 fwd
Our fair value
$92.52
0% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$100.65
+9% to current
Target low $71.88Analyst target rangeTarget high $106.57
▲ current $92.36 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$92.36
you are here
Conservative
$64.70
-30%
Analyst avg
$100.65
+9%
Our fair value
$92.52
+0%
Analyst high
$106.57
+15%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-2.50%
Profit margin
27.21%
Debt to equity
51.29
Analyst consensus
Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Trains cross borders but numbers stay flat
Think of a freight train rumbling from Vancouver to Kansas City. Every car carries grain, coal or fertiliser, yet the top line is shrinking two percent and the shares sit a touch above our fair value. Canadian Pacific Kansas City earns a solid twenty-seven percent profit margin and clears the ethical screen, but the narrow moat and eight percent return on equity do not justify paying twenty-two times forward earnings when growth has turned negative.
We therefore pass. The market is already pricing in modest recovery through the thirteen-analyst buy consensus and one-hundred-and-one dollar median target, leaving almost no margin of safety at current levels.
Rail volumes track the economic cycle, so any slowdown in North American trade quickly hits both revenue and the already modest return on equity. Currency swings between the loonie and the peso add another layer of volatility that the narrow competitive position does little to offset. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-28 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Markup$92.36+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$92.36+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$92.36+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$92.36-1.4%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$93.71+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$93.71+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$93.71+4.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$90.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-07-03Markup$90.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$90.08Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming CP
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
28 May2026
Christian Menefee
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
28 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
27 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
23 Feb2026
Christian Menefee
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
2026-05-05
Brian Babin
Republican
Sale
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$84.77
+5.9%
·
$1,059
+5.9%
2 months
$80.67
+11.3%
·
$1,113
+11.3%
3 months
$81.00
+10.8%
$0.17
$1,110
+11.0%
6 months
$75.08
+19.6%
$0.17
$1,198
+19.8%
1 year
$80.73
+11.2%
$0.50
$1,118
+11.8%
2 years
$75.70
+18.6%
$1.04
$1,200
+20.0%
3 years
$74.88
+19.9%
$1.61
$1,220
+22.0%
5 years
$77.32
+16.1%
$2.92
$1,199
+19.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CP does next, these words stay.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited · CP · Markup · $92.36
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically