GBX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.4B · 11,000 employees
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
46.12 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. holds its Markdown at $46.12. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$46.12
Valuation
13.64 trailing · 11.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Railcar maker hits a wall of weak demand
Picture a factory that builds railcars for moving grain and coal. When those shipments slow, orders vanish fast and the whole line idles. Greenbrier sits in exactly that spot, with revenue already down a third and profit margins stuck at just four percent. Our numbers show almost no margin of safety at current prices and analysts are targeting even lower, so we pass.
The business clears our ethical screen, yet the fundamentals do not stack up. Return on equity is only six percent and forward earnings sit on a multiple that looks cheap only until the next downturn cuts volumes again. This is classic cyclical exposure, not a bargain.
Peak earnings and a low multiple often signal the top of the cycle rather than value. Any further drop in rail traffic would hit both sales and margins hard, leaving little room for error. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GBX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markdown · changed$46.12-7.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$50.02+3.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-07-18Markdown$48.17+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-07-03Markdown$48.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$48.17Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
