Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.90, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price38.09 USD
Fair value45.80
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-30Read Markdown46.12-17.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-31Read Markup50.02-23.9% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Markdown48.17-20.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. holds its Markdown at $38.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 67 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 67 days
Price at the screen
$38.09
Valuation
11.47 trailing · 10.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Greenbrier Companies,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 42% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today GBX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Underperform. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Railcar maker hits a wall of weak demand
Picture a factory that builds railcars for moving grain and coal. When those shipments slow, orders vanish fast and the whole line idles. Greenbrier sits in exactly that spot, with revenue already down a third and profit margins stuck at just four percent. Our numbers show almost no margin of safety at current prices and analysts are targeting even lower, so we pass.
The business clears our ethical screen, yet the fundamentals do not stack up. Return on equity is only six percent and forward earnings sit on a multiple that looks cheap only until the next downturn cuts volumes again. This is classic cyclical exposure, not a bargain.
Peak earnings and a low multiple often signal the top of the cycle rather than value. Any further drop in rail traffic would hit both sales and margins hard, leaving little room for error. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GBX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markdown$38.78+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$38.78+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$38.78+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$38.78-1.3%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$39.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$39.31+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$39.31+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$39.31+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$39.31-6.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-10-02Markdown$41.82-9.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
