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The Screen · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Trade Desk (The)
TTD · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $6.6B · 3,843 employees
The Trade Desk, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
13.97 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Trade Desk (The) holds its Accumulation at $13.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 84 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 84 days
Price at the screen
$13.97
Valuation
16.63 trailing · 13.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.48%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
71.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 72.0% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
2.37%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $16.88 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 30 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ad tech looks cheap until the ethics check arrives
Picture a platform routing digital campaigns for brands across every screen and format, yet the books show persistent problems with accounts receivable. Trade Desk clears most financial hurdles with a forward multiple of 8.7 times, 12 percent revenue growth and a 15 percent profit margin, yet the ethical screen flags it outright. We pass for that single reason alone.
The business carries a moderate moat and returns 17 percent on equity, while thirty analysts sit on a hold rating with a 24 dollar median target. Those figures suggest room above the current 18.59 price, and our own fair value sits higher still. None of it overrides the accounts receivable failure that places the name outside our criteria.
Ad budgets remain tied to economic cycles, so any slowdown in spend would pressure both growth and collections further. The ethical lapse adds a layer of ongoing governance risk that standard multiples do not capture. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TTD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markup · changed$13.97-20.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 20.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-15Distribution$17.67-11.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Distribution$19.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Distribution$19.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$19.95Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
