Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Stagwell Inc. holds its Accumulation at $8.33. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$8.33
Valuation
138.83 trailing · 6.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap ad agency multiple masks thin returns
Picture a marketing brief that lands on time but never quite moves the needle. Stagwell sits in that middle ground, offering digital and creative services across the US and UK yet posting just 1% profit margins and 3% return on equity. The 6.4 times forward earnings multiple looks attractive next to 8% revenue growth, yet the business never clears a high enough bar on profitability to turn that discount into real value.
We pass because the low multiple reflects the industry cycle rather than a bargain. Advertising spend tightens quickly when clients cut budgets, and Stagwell shows no durable moat to protect earnings through the downturns. Analyst targets sit around 8 dollars, close to the current price, which leaves little room once the next slowdown arrives.
Risk sits in the thin returns and unknown competitive edge. Currency moves and client concentration could widen the gap between reported growth and cash that actually reaches shareholders. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STGW trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-13Markdown · changed$8.88-5.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 41.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Markup$6.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Markup$6.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$6.63Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
