Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price10.83 USD
Fair value15.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup11.00-1.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 29% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation8.50+27.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-13Read Markdown8.88+22.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-13Read Accumulation9.35+15.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 41% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Stagwell Inc. holds its Markup at $10.83. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 83 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 83 days
Price at the screen
$10.83
Valuation
366.67 trailing · 8.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Stagwell's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $15.00 fair value, 9.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $15.00, with a range of $15.00 to $22.00, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap ad agency multiple masks thin returns
Picture a marketing brief that lands on time but never quite moves the needle. Stagwell sits in that middle ground, offering digital and creative services across the US and UK yet posting just 1% profit margins and 3% return on equity. The 6.4 times forward earnings multiple looks attractive next to 8% revenue growth, yet the business never clears a high enough bar on profitability to turn that discount into real value.
We pass because the low multiple reflects the industry cycle rather than a bargain. Advertising spend tightens quickly when clients cut budgets, and Stagwell shows no durable moat to protect earnings through the downturns. Analyst targets sit around 8 dollars, close to the current price, which leaves little room once the next slowdown arrives.
Risk sits in the thin returns and unknown competitive edge. Currency moves and client concentration could widen the gap between reported growth and cash that actually reaches shareholders. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STGW trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$11.00+22.5%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-29Accumulation$8.98+0.7%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$8.92+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$8.92+1.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$8.78+3.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
