NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Silgan Holdings Inc.
SLGN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.1B · 17,320 employees
Silgan Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells rigid packaging solutions for consumer goods products in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
38.40 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 38.40 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 61.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price38.40 USD
Fair value61.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution40.91-6.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Silgan Holdings Inc. holds its Distribution at $38.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$38.40
Valuation
15.06 trailing · 9.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.68
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.26%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +48% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday cans mask a packaging value trap
Think of the metal tins and plastic caps that keep your soup or shampoo sealed. Silgan makes those in volume, yet the business sits in a cyclical corner of consumer goods where volumes swing with spending and commodity costs. A forward multiple of 11.5 times and a 29 percent gap to our fair value look tempting on paper, but the 6 percent revenue growth and 4 percent profit margin tell a flatter story.
We pass because the low multiple is the warning, not the bargain. Peak earnings in good years often compress the price-to-earnings ratio without lifting long-run returns, and the unknown moat leaves little protection when metal prices or retail demand turn. ROE at 13 percent is respectable yet nothing that offsets the cyclical exposure.
The ethical screen clears, and analysts see upside to 56 dollars, yet none of that overcomes the risk of buying at what may prove the top of the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SLGN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-13Distribution$42.97+3.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-08-13Distribution$41.71+2.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-18Distribution$40.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-03Distribution$40.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$40.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
