Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.07, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.72 USD
Fair value5.68
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup4.59+2.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-21Read Markdown4.80-1.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-21Read Markup5.04-6.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 20% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation4.20+12.4% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. holds its Markup at $4.72. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$4.72
Valuation
59.50 trailing · 16.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
77.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 77.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ardagh Metal Packaging's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 78% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AMBP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $5.68 fair value, 18.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $5.68, with a range of $4.77 to $7.95, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beverage Cans Grow Fast Yet Deliver Zero Profit
Picture a factory turning out cans for beer and soft drinks across three continents. Revenue jumps 19 percent as volumes recover, yet the whole operation clears nothing at the bottom line. That zero profit margin in a cyclical packaging business leaves little room for error when raw material costs spike or demand softens.
We pass because the modest seven percent gap between today's price and our fair value offers scant protection. A forward multiple of sixteen times sits alongside an unknown competitive edge and a consensus hold rating from analysts. Ethical checks clear, but the numbers still fail to show durable cash generation.
Cyclical packaging firms often trade on peak earnings that later disappoint, and zero margins amplify that trap. Currency swings in Brazil and Europe add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMBP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup$4.50-2.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$4.59-1.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-10-19Markdown$4.67+6.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-10-12Markdown$4.40-2.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-10-02Markdown$4.53-5.6%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$4.80-4.8%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$5.04+7.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-21Accumulation$4.69+11.7%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-18Accumulation$4.20+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-17Accumulation$4.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
