Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.80 USD
Fair value5.85
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-21Read Markup5.04-4.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation4.20+14.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. holds its Markdown at $4.80. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 237 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 237 days
Price at the screen
$4.80
Valuation
96.00 trailing · 15.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
77.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 77.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beverage Cans Grow Fast Yet Deliver Zero Profit
Picture a factory turning out cans for beer and soft drinks across three continents. Revenue jumps 19 percent as volumes recover, yet the whole operation clears nothing at the bottom line. That zero profit margin in a cyclical packaging business leaves little room for error when raw material costs spike or demand softens.
We pass because the modest seven percent gap between today's price and our fair value offers scant protection. A forward multiple of sixteen times sits alongside an unknown competitive edge and a consensus hold rating from analysts. Ethical checks clear, but the numbers still fail to show durable cash generation.
Cyclical packaging firms often trade on peak earnings that later disappoint, and zero margins amplify that trap. Currency swings in Brazil and Europe add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMBP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$5.04+7.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-21Accumulation$4.69+11.7%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-18Accumulation$4.20+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-17Accumulation$4.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-03Accumulation$4.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$4.20Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
