An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $76.32
Greif, Inc. holds its Markup at $76.32.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price
$76.32
Valuation
31.54 trailing · 16.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.78
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$76.32
31.54 P/E · 16.93 fwd
Our fair value
$87.07
14% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$75.00
-2% to current
Target low $70.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $90.00
▲ current $76.32 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$76.32
you are here
Conservative
$74.36
-3%
Analyst avg
$75.00
-2%
Our fair value
$87.07
+14%
Analyst high
$90.00
+18%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Revenue growth
-0.50%
Profit margin
24.43%
Debt to equity
39.34
Analyst consensus
Hold · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Every box shipped still needs a maker
Picture the steel drum or plastic container holding chemicals or food ingredients on its way to a factory. Greif makes those, yet revenue sits flat and the market assigns it no edge worth chasing at the current price. With a forward multiple of 16.9 times and five analysts clustered on a hold rating around 75 dollars, the shares already reflect what modest stability the business shows.
The 24 percent profit margin looks solid on paper, but zero top-line growth in a cyclical packaging market leaves little room for surprise upside. Ethical screens clear the name, yet the unknown competitive position and the fact that the price sits close to consensus targets suggest the market is not mispricing anything material.
Cyclical earnings can look cheap on a middling multiple right before volumes turn, and flat revenue offers no cushion if input costs or customer destocking bite harder than expected. The modest gap to our fair value does not change the lack of any real catalyst. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
GEF trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Entered 2026-07-31 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-31Markup · changed$76.32+11.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Distribution$68.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-03Distribution$68.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$68.39Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$66.61
-2.9%
·
$971
-2.9%
2 months
$70.07
-7.7%
·
$923
-7.7%
3 months
$66.43
-2.7%
$0.56
$982
-1.8%
6 months
$66.98
-3.5%
$1.12
$982
-1.8%
1 year
$62.05
+4.2%
$2.22
$1,078
+7.8%
2 years
$56.61
+14.3%
$4.36
$1,220
+22.0%
3 years
$64.67
+0.0%
$6.42
$1,099
+9.9%
5 years
$54.64
+18.4%
$10.20
$1,370
+37.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GEF does next, these words stay.
Greif, Inc. · GEF · Markup · $76.32
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
