NAS10026,944+1.18%S&P7,385+0.42%GOLD$4,067−1.12%BTC$75,586−0.47%VIX25.28−10.29%latest tape · as of 18:01 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.5B · 23,000 employees
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer produc…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.54 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 18:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price11.54 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-14
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.54 USD
Fair value11.88
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution9.31+24.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup10.70+7.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company holds its Markup at $11.54. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$11.54
Valuation
47.00 trailing · 12.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Graphic Packaging's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when GPK's ethical verdict changes
Today GPK does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $11.88 fair value, 0.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $11.88, with a range of $11.88 to $23.50, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cardboard boxes priced for a quiet life
Every time a fast food chain ships a burger or a supermarket stocks a cereal box, the packaging has to come from somewhere. Graphic Packaging sits in that supply chain, yet it is growing revenue at just 2 percent a year while posting a 3 percent profit margin and 9 percent return on equity. The forward multiple of 9.3 times earnings looks attractive on paper, but the business shows little momentum and analyst targets sit only modestly above the current price.
We pass on the name. A low multiple on a consumer cyclical often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the thin returns on capital reinforce the sense that this is not compounding capital at an attractive rate. Ethical screens clear the company, yet the opportunity rating remains none because the numbers do not point to durable outperformance.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure to consumer spending and input costs. Any slowdown in packaged goods volumes would quickly pressure already modest margins, and the market is correctly treating the shares as a steady but unexciting utility rather than a growth compounder. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GPK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$8.95+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$8.95+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$8.95+2.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$8.77+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$8.77+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$8.77+4.5%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$8.39+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$8.39+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$8.39-0.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-16Distribution$8.40-9.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
