Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.47, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.96 USD
Fair value6.00Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution5.77-14.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-08Read Accumulation6.55-24.3% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-07Read Distribution6.38-22.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markdown6.52-23.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. holds its Distribution at $4.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$4.96
Valuation
25.35 trailing · 5.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.61
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Orchid Island Capital, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $6.00 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.3% discount to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $6.00, with a range of $6.00 to $9.58, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
Trading at 5.2x forward earnings. That is a 20% discount to our $6.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 1 analyst rate it Hold with a $6.00 average target, about 21% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$4.96-2.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-29Distribution$5.07-0.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-22Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$5.08+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$5.08-12.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
