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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
ABR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.1B · 653 employees
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.25 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. holds its Distribution at $5.25. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$5.25
Valuation
58.33 trailing · 9.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs fail ethics before numbers speak
Picture a fund manager packaging loans on apartment blocks and rental homes, routing cash through structures that traditional banks sidestep. Arbor Realty Trust operates right in that mortgage niche, which trips our ethical screen outright. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of the apparent discount to fair value.
The business shows a forward multiple of 8.5 times earnings, yet revenue is shrinking 10 percent and return on equity sits at just 4 percent. Profit margins hold at 22 percent, but four analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target only modestly above the current price. These figures do not overcome the sector prohibition.
Interest-rate swings and credit cycles can turn thin margins quickly, and low returns on equity already flag limited resilience. The ethical block remains the decisive factor here.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ABR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-19Distribution$5.25+1.5%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-08-20Distribution$5.17-0.2%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-20Distribution$5.18-0.6%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Distribution$5.21+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-16Distribution$5.21+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Distribution$5.21+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$5.21Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.