Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price6.56 USD
Fair value8.36
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 28 Oct 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation6.41+2.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-24Read Markdown6.43+2.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-21Read Markup6.98-6.0% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 35% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown10.74-38.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $6.56. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$6.56
Valuation
7.94 trailing · 8.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today ARI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 28 Oct 2026: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $8.36 fair value, 0.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $8.36, with a range of $6.98 to $9.88, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 0%-growth business trading at just 8.5x forward earnings. That is a 22% discount to our $8.36 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 2 analysts rate it Buy with a $9.88 average target, about 51% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$6.56+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-29Accumulation$6.56+2.3%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$6.41+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$6.41+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$6.41+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$6.41+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$6.41+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$6.41+2.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$6.24-3.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Political Ledger · Congressional Disclosures
Disclosures naming ARI
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2026-10-08
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
50K–100K
2026-09-25
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
2026-09-25
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
2026-09-25
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
2026-09-25
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$10.96
+0.1%
·
$1,001
+0.1%
2 months
$10.86
+1.0%
·
$1,010
+1.0%
3 months
$10.09
+8.6%
$0.25
$1,111
+11.1%
6 months
$9.62
+14.0%
$0.50
$1,192
+19.2%
1 year
$9.06
+21.0%
$1.00
$1,320
+32.0%
2 years
$7.92
+38.5%
$2.10
$1,650
+65.0%
3 years
$7.69
+42.6%
$3.50
$1,881
+88.1%
5 years
$9.27
+18.3%
$6.30
$1,863
+86.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ARI does next, these words stay.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. · ARI · Accumulation · $6.56
Recorded 2026-10-28 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
