2026-10-25
Marten Transport, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Trucking
Marten Transport, Ltd.
MRTN · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $977M · 3,502 employees
Marten Transport, Ltd.
Not yet scored11.98 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price11.98 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $11.25 to $15.00, base estimate $13.04 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price11.98 USD
Fair value13.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Markdown14.46-17.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 18% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Distribution17.65-32.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup18.16-34.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Marten Transport, Ltd. holds its Markdown at $11.98. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days |
| Price at the screen | $11.98 |
| Valuation | 74.88 trailing · 23.19 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.02 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 0.02% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 13.59% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 13.6% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Marten Transport, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Marten Transport, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 8% discount to our $13.04 fair value, 1.30% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.1% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $13.04, with a range of $11.25 to $15.00, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsChilled truckloads trade well above fair value
Every time a reefer truck hauls strawberries from Mexico into a Midwest warehouse, Marten keeps the cargo at the right temperature. Yet the business is shrinking, not expanding. Revenue fell 9 percent last year while the shares sit 13 percent above our fair value, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
The forward multiple of 27.6 times earnings looks rich for a carrier posting just 2 percent profit margins and 2 percent return on equity. Two analysts still say buy with an $18 target, but those forecasts ignore the cyclical nature of trucking and the lack of any visible moat. Paying a premium for declining volumes is the definition of a value trap dressed as growth.
The ethical screen clears without issue, yet the numbers show a business that is neither cheap nor improving. Currency moves and fuel swings only add to the downside. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 23.2xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 74.9xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.16 |
| EPS, forward | 0.52 |
| Revenue growth | +1.3%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 1.5%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 1.7%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| Dividend yield | 132.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.01minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.21comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.02moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 9.35 - 18.48 |
| Market cap | $977M |
| Employees | 3,502 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMRTN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markdown $12.36
+4.9% Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-29
Markdown $11.78
-8.6% Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-22
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17
Markdown $12.89
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16
Markdown $12.89
+1.1% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15
Markdown $12.75
-3.6% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Do Options Traders Know Something About MRTN Stock We Don't? Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- Marten Transport (MRTN) Stock Sinks As Q3 Earnings Expose Margin Strain Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- Cost pressures sink Marten Transport’s Q3 Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- New Strong Sell Stocks for October 23rd Yahoo Finance · 15d ago
- Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) Misses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates Yahoo Finance · 15d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $15.04 | +17.8% | · | $1,178 | +17.8% |
| 2 months | $14.01 | +26.4% | · | $1,264 | +26.4% |
| 3 months | $11.40 | +55.3% | $0.06 | $1,559 | +55.9% |
| 6 months | $11.67 | +51.8% | $0.12 | $1,528 | +52.8% |
| 1 year | $13.27 | +33.4% | $0.24 | $1,352 | +35.2% |
| 2 years | $17.41 | +1.8% | $0.48 | $1,045 | +4.5% |
| 3 years | $20.93 | -15.4% | $0.72 | $880 | -12.0% |
| 5 years | $15.31 | +15.7% | $1.64 | $1,264 | +26.4% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MRTN does next, these words stay.
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