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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
LPX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.5B · 4,300 employees
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides building solutions for applications in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets in the United States, Canada, and…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price65.05 USD
Fair value58.84
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Distribution70.72-8.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup75.04-13.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation holds its Markdown at $65.05. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 499 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 499 days
Price at the screen
$65.05
Valuation
84.48 trailing · 21.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
14.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 14.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.59%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing Supplier Faces Familiar Cyclical Squeeze
Picture a lumberyard that fills up when new homes rise and empties when rates climb. Louisiana-Pacific sits squarely in that pattern, selling siding and oriented strand board into construction and repair markets across the Americas. Revenue has already dropped 21 percent, margins sit at just 3 percent and return on equity is a thin 5 percent, so the business is already feeling the slowdown.
The forward multiple of 20.7 times earnings looks full against those figures and our fair value sits 17 percent below the current price of 73.98 dollars. Analysts may cluster around a 93-dollar target, yet the combination of negative growth, thin profitability and exposure to housing cycles points to peak earnings rather than a bargain. The ethical screen clears, but the numbers still fail our test.
A cyclical value trap often hides behind a low multiple; here the multiple is not even low, which removes any margin of safety and leaves the stock priced for a recovery that has not arrived. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LPX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-08-04Markup$72.43-3.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Markup$75.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Markup$75.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$75.04Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.