Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price42.69 USD
Fair value36.52
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown44.95-5.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup45.63-6.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trex Company, Inc. holds its Markdown at $42.69. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 119 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 119 days
Price at the screen
$42.69
Valuation
26.44 trailing · 22.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing Slowdown Leaves Decking Maker Exposed
Picture a homeowner in the suburbs planning a new deck just as mortgage rates spike and renovation budgets shrink. Trex sits right in that slowdown, selling composite boards into a market where housing activity has turned soft. Revenue growth has already dropped to 1 percent and the shares trade well above our fair value, giving no margin of safety at all. Analysts still like the name, yet the numbers show a business whose best days are behind it for now.
The valuation tells the same story. A forward multiple of 23 times sits on single-digit top-line growth and a profit margin that has not expanded. In a cyclical building-products industry, low growth plus a full price often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. We therefore pass.
Currency and input-cost swings add further uncertainty, while the lack of a clear moat leaves room for cheaper rivals if demand stays weak. Ethical screens raise no red flags, yet the cyclical trap remains the dominant risk. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TREX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$44.95-8.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (19 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-08-15Markup$49.17+7.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (19 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Markup$45.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (19 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Markup$45.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$45.63Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
