An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $87.67
AAON Inc holds its Distribution at $87.67.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price
$87.67
Valuation
46.14 trailing · 24.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.44
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$87.67
46.14 P/E · 24.85 fwd
Our fair value
$84.91
3% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$140.00
+60% to current
Target low $135.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $154.00
▲ current $87.67 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$87.67
you are here
Conservative
$84.91
-3%
Analyst avg
$140.00
+60%
Our fair value
$84.91
-3%
Analyst high
$154.00
+76%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
101.20%
Profit margin
8.24%
Debt to equity
43.05
Analyst consensus
Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 25.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 18.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
HVAC Growth Story Priced for Perfection
Picture a Midwest factory floor in July, where one failed air handler can halt an entire shift. AAON builds the equipment that keeps those lines moving, and its revenue has jumped 54 percent lately. Yet the shares trade at 32.6 times forward earnings against our fair value of 89.43, a 20 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety.
We pass. The business carries only a narrow moat, returns on equity sit at 13 percent, and profit margins remain thin at 7 percent. In a cyclical sector like building products, today's strong order book can flip quickly when construction spending turns, and paying a premium multiple for peak earnings is the classic value trap.
Analysts see further upside and the ethical screen is clear, but the combination of elevated valuation, modest returns and economic sensitivity outweighs the growth. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $144. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markup$111.42-12.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $144.
2026-07-18Markup$127.19+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $144.
2026-07-16Markup$127.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $144.
2026-07-03Markup$127.19+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$127.19Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$141.60
-15.5%
$0.10
$846
-15.4%
2 months
$93.11
+28.5%
$0.10
$1,286
+28.6%
3 months
$86.89
+37.7%
$0.20
$1,380
+38.0%
6 months
$83.81
+42.8%
$0.20
$1,430
+43.0%
1 year
$78.23
+53.0%
$0.40
$1,535
+53.5%
2 years
$71.83
+66.6%
$0.76
$1,677
+67.7%
3 years
$62.88
+90.3%
$1.08
$1,920
+92.0%
5 years
$42.03
+184.7%
$1.65
$2,886
+188.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AAON does next, these words stay.
AAON Inc · AAON · Distribution · $87.67
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
