NAS10029,430−1.28%S&P7,718−0.34%GOLD$4,038−0.34%BTC$80,235−1.27%VIX16.92+0.06%latest tape · as of 14:02 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Builders FirstSource
BLDR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $5.7B · 28,000 employees
Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
55.88 USD
Price as of 28 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-28 · the tape above runs as of 14:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price55.88 USD at the 28 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read distribution
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.55)
Last reviewed28 Oct 2026 (1 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 55.88 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 52.58, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.55, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price55.88 USD
Fair value52.58
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Distribution52.95+5.5% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown57.53-2.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 21% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Markup72.51-22.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Distribution73.64-24.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Builders FirstSource holds its Distribution at $55.88. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$55.88
Valuation
57.55 trailing · 13.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Builders FirstSource's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BLDR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $52.58 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing Supplier Hits the Cycle Peak
When new homes stop rising fast the firms that cut the lumber and frame the walls feel the drop first. We pass on this name because revenue already fell 10 percent while the balance sheet carries debt that fails our ethical screen outright.
Forward earnings trade at 12 times yet margins sit at just 2 percent and return on equity is a thin 7 percent. In a cyclical building-products business that low multiple often marks the top of the cycle rather than a bargain, especially with a weak moat and no durable edge.
Analyst targets may look tempting but the combination of fading demand and leverage makes the risk clear. The market is pricing in a recovery that may still be some way off. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BLDR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Distribution$55.88+5.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$52.95+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$52.95+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$52.95+0.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-10-14Markdown$52.85-8.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
